Fundamentals
Sienna Senior Living posted a Q2‑2025 revenue of CAD 1.03 billion, up 7 % versus Q2‑2024 and 3 % ahead of the consensus Street estimate of CAD 1.00 billion. On the earnings side, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of CAD 115 million, translating to CAD 0.31 per share, which missed the consensus forecast of CAD 0.34 but still represented a 12 % improvement over the prior‑year’s CAD 0.28. Management highlighted the 2025 Impact Report, noting higher occupancy gains in the Midwest and a modest lift in average daily rates, but also flagged higher labor‑cost inflation that squeezed margins.
Market & Technical Implications
The top‑line beat gave the stock a short‑term bounce; Sienna’s shares have already found near‑term support around CAD 12.80 and are testing the next resistance level at CAD 13.30. The earnings miss, however, left the EBIT‑margin at 11.2 % versus the Street’s 12.0 % target, creating a downward pressure on valuation multiples. Volume‑weighted moving‑average (VWAP) remains above the current price, suggesting the rally may still be incomplete, but the relative strength index (RSI) is hovering at 58, indicating limited upside momentum for now.
Actionable Take‑away
Given the revenue beat and YoY growth—a sign that the operating model is still expanding—a modest long position could be justified if the price holds above the CAD 12.80 support and moves toward the CAD 13.30 resistance with improving volume. Conversely, the miss on adjusted EBITDA and margin compression warrant a tight stop‑loss just above the recent high (≈CAD 13.30) or a partial profit‑taking if the stock stalls below that level. In short, the catalyst is mixed: upside potential exists if the market digests the top‑line strength, but the earnings shortfall keeps the downside risk alive.