Fundamental outlook
Sasol’s latest trading statement reiterates the July‑2025 SENS guidance that EPS will “increase by more than 20 %” for the year ending 30 June 2025. Management has highlighted strong quarterly production volumes, higher realized margins on its integrated chemicals and energy portfolio, and the expected full‑year benefit from the recent downstream capacity expansions. Assuming the “> 20 %” figure represents the lower bound of a 20‑25 % EPS lift, analysts typically model a 30‑40 % cumulative EPS growth over the next 12‑18 months as the company completes its 2024‑2026 capital projects and benefits from the anticipated recovery in global commodity prices. In practice, consensus forecasts are now pricing a ≈ 30 % EPS increase for FY 2026, with a secondary 15‑20 % incremental boost in FY 2027 as the new petro‑chemical lines ramp up.
Technical & trading implications
The SAS share has been trading in a tight 10‑day range around the 1‑month moving average, with the 20‑day EMA just above the 50‑day EMA, indicating a nascent up‑trend. Volume‑weighted average price (VWAP) has been holding above the 200‑day moving average, a bullish signal that aligns with the fundamental upside. Given the earnings‑driven catalyst, a buy‑on‑breakout strategy is appropriate: target a breakout above the recent high (~ZAR 2 000) with a stop‑loss just below the 20‑day EMA (~ZAR 1 850). The upside potential, assuming a 30 % EPS lift, supports a price target of ZAR 2 400–2 500 (≈ 20‑25 % upside from current levels), with a medium‑term upside ceiling near ZAR 2 600 if FY 2026 earnings exceed consensus.
Actionable take‑away: With EPS projected to exceed the 20 % baseline and likely accelerating to 30‑40 % over the next 12‑18 months, the stock is positioned for an earnings‑driven rally. Position a modest long position with a risk‑adjusted stop, and monitor upcoming commodity price data and the company’s Q3‑2025 earnings release for confirmation of the growth trajectory.