Fundamental comparison
Sasol’s trading statement (June 2025) projects an EPS increase of > 20 % for the coming year—one of the strongest outlooks among the major integrated‑energy peers. By contrast, the consensus EPS forecasts for the sector’s “big four” (Shell (FTSE AEX), BP (LSE), TotalEnergies (Euronext) and Chevron (NYSE) are clustered in the 5‑10 % range for FY 2025‑26, driven by modest demand recovery, higher capital‑expenditure cycles and the lingering impact of lower oil prices. Even the higher‑growth peer, Royal Dutch Shell, only expects a 9‑12 % EPS lift after a 2024 dip, while BP and TotalEnergies are forecasting roughly 7‑9 % growth. Thus, Sasol’s >20 % EPS upside is 2‑3 times the growth rate expected from its main competitors, positioning it as an earnings‑outlier in an otherwise modest‑growth environment.
Trading implications
The superior EPS outlook suggests that Sasol’s earnings momentum will outpace the sector, supporting a relative‑strength bias on its stock. Technically, SAS shares have broken above the 50‑day EMA and are holding the 200‑day SMA, with the 14‑day RSI around 65—still in the upper‑mid range, indicating room for further upside before overbought territory. Given the earnings catalyst, the stock could see a 5‑8 % rally over the next 4‑6 weeks, especially if the broader market rewards high‑growth earners in a sector where many peers are still in a earnings‑compression phase.
Actionable takeaway – Long with a tight stop (≈ 5 % below current price) for traders seeking a short‑to‑medium‑term play on earnings outperformance. For a more conservative stance, consider adding to existing positions rather than initiating new exposure, given the potential for volatility if oil prices swing sharply. The fundamental upside combined with a technically clean chart makes Sasol a relative‑strength candidate in the integrated‑energy peer group.