Are there any regulatory or geopolitical developments referenced in paragraph 3.4(b)(i) that could affect future earnings?

Short answer: The excerpt does not spell out the content of paragraph 3.4(b)(i), so we cannot point to a specific regulatory or geopolitical event that Sasol has highlighted. However, the very fact that the company is citing that paragraph in its earnings release signals that a material disclosure—most likely a regulatory or geopolitical factor—has been identified as relevant to its outlook.

Why it matters: For a South‑African integrated energy and chemicals group, the typical “regulatory/geopolitical” triggers that would be disclosed in a section such as 3.4(b)(i) include:

• Carbon‑pricing or emissions‑regulation – South Africa’s carbon‑tax regime, potential EU‑Fit‑For‑55 adjustments, or new U.S. sanctions on high‑carbon feedstocks could compress margins on Sasol’s upstream and downstream operations.
  
• Energy‑security policy – Government‑mandated fuel‑mix quotas, preferential access to natural‑gas pipelines, or changes to the country’s strategic petroleum reserve rules can affect plant utilisation rates and pricing.
  
• Sanctions or trade‑restriction risk – Recent U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian‑origin feedstock, or heightened geopolitical tension in the Southern African region, could limit Sasol’s ability to import key raw materials or export finished products.

Trading implications:

1. Watch the regulatory pipeline: Until the exact wording of 3.4(b)(i) is disclosed, keep a close eye on South African Treasury announcements (carbon‑tax, fuel‑mix mandates) and any new sanctions lists that could hit Sasol’s supply chain. A tightening of emissions rules or a sanction‑related supply choke would likely shave into the >20 % EPS upside the company is projecting.

2. Position for upside with a hedge: If you are bullish on the 20 % EPS lift, consider a long‑position in SAS with a modest stop‑loss (e.g., 5–7 % below the current price) and overlay a put‑option or a short‑position on a correlated carbon‑intensity index to protect against a sudden regulatory shock.

3. Monitor macro‑sensitive catalysts: Track the upcoming South African budget, any EU carbon‑border‑adjustment mechanism (CBAM) rulings, and the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions updates. Positive regulatory news (e.g., a carbon‑tax deferral) could accelerate the earnings beat, while negative developments would warrant a defensive tilt or a partial exit.

In short, while the precise regulatory/geopolitical factor in paragraph 3.4(b)(i) isn’t disclosed, the typical risk‑vectors for Sasol are well‑known. Keeping a “reg‑watch” on carbon‑policy, sanctions, and energy‑security developments will be essential to gauge whether the projected >20 % EPS growth remains on track.