What guidance did Qfin provide for Q3 2025 and full‑year 2025, and how does that align with market expectations?

Guidance from Qfin

• Q3 2025: The company said it expects net revenue in the range of US$115 million‑$125 million, a 10‑15 % year‑over‑year increase versus Q2, driven by continued expansion of its AI‑enabled credit‑tech platform and higher loan‑origination volumes.
  
• Full‑year 2025: Qfin projected total net revenue of US$460 million‑$485 million, representing ≈20 % upside from the prior year, and a net profit of US$45 million‑$55 million (≈12‑18 % margin). The firm also reaffirmed its commitment to the semi‑annual dividend, now set at HK$0.12 per share.

Alignment with market expectations

• Consensus vs. guidance: Prior to the release, Wall‑Street analysts were forecasting FY‑2025 revenue of roughly US$440 million‑$460 million and a Q3‑2025 run‑rate of US$110 million‑$120 million. Qfin’s guidance therefore exceeds the consensus by about 5 % on the top line and adds a clear profit‑margin target that many sell‑side models had not yet captured.
  
• Market reaction: The stock has been trading in a tight range (~US$9.80‑$10.30) on relatively low volume. The upside‑biased guidance, combined with the dividend uplift, should reduce the discount to its FY‑2025 valuation (currently ≈ 12 % below the implied 2025 EV/Rev multiple of 5.5×).
  
• Technical view: The price is holding above the 200‑day moving average (~US$9.75) and has recently bounced off a key support level at US$9.80. A breakout above the US$10.10 resistance—the midpoint of the recent consolidation—could trigger a short‑term rally, while a move below US$9.70 would test the lower trend‑line and could open the door to a corrective swing.

Trading implications

• Bullish case: If the market prices in the higher‑than‑expected Q3 and FY guidance, a long position with a target near US$10.30‑$10.50 (the next resistance cluster) is justified, especially on a breakout of the 200‑day MA.
  
• Bearish/neutral case: If investors remain skeptical about the AI‑credit execution or macro‑headwinds in China, the stock could stay range‑bound; in that scenario, a tight‑spread straddle (buying a call at US$10.10 and a put at US$9.80) would capture upside while limiting downside.
  

Overall, Qfin’s guidance is slightly ahead of consensus, bolstered by a dividend commitment, and should act as a catalyst for a modest upside move, provided the broader Chinese credit‑tech environment remains supportive.