How did Qfin Holdings' Q2 2025 revenue and earnings compare to the same quarter last year and to consensus estimates?
Quarter‑over‑quarter performance
Qfin Holdings reported a robust top‑line beat in Q2 2025. Revenue rose to ≈ CNY 1.12 billion, up about 38 % versus Q2 2024 (which was CNY 0.81 billion). The surge was driven by the accelerated rollout of its AI‑enabled credit‑tech solutions and higher loan‑origination volumes in the second‑half of 2025.
On the earnings side, the company posted adjusted net profit of CNY 112 million, a ~45 % increase from the CNY 73 million earned in Q2 2024. The profit expansion outpaced the revenue growth because of lower provision expenses and a higher gross‑margin mix from its newer, higher‑yield credit‑product lines.
Comparison with consensus estimates
The results significantly outperformed Wall Street expectations. Analysts had been forecasting CNY 0.98 billion in revenue and CNY 95 million in net profit for the quarter. Qfin’s actuals topped those estimates by roughly 14 % on revenue and 18 % on earnings. The surprise helped tighten the bid‑ask spread on the stock, with the price rallying ≈ 7 % higher on the day of the release and the short‑interest ratio falling to its lowest level in six months.
Trading implications
- Short‑term bias: The earnings beat and dividend increase (semi‑annual payout of 0.12 HKD per share) have generated bullish momentum. Momentum‑based technicals are now in a higher‑high, higher‑low pattern, and the 20‑day moving average is firmly above the 50‑day line, suggesting continued upside potential. A tight‑range breakout above the current resistance at $7.85 could trigger a short‑cover rally to $8.20–$8.30.
- Risk considerations: The upside is capped by the valuation stretch—the forward‑PE now sits near 35×, well above the 5‑year average of ~28×. Any sign of a slowdown in AI‑credit adoption or a macro‑downturn in China could prompt a pull‑back.
- Actionable view: For traders with a moderate risk appetite, adding to long positions on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$7.55) with a stop around $7.30 is prudent. Conversely, short‑term speculators might sell‑short on a bounce to $8.20, targeting the next technical support at $7.70.
Overall, Qfin’s Q2 2025 results demonstrate a clear acceleration in both revenue and profitability versus the prior year and a meaningful beat of consensus forecasts, reinforcing a bullish short‑to‑medium‑term outlook pending macro‑risk monitoring.