How does Qfin's valuation metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA) after the earnings release compare to its main competitors?

Valuation snapshot post‑Q2 2025

Following the unaudited Q2 release, Qfin’s shares settled at roughly ¥12.8, translating to a trailing‑12 P/E of ≈ 24× (vs. a FY‑2025 forward‑P/E of ~27× on the last close) and an EV/EBITDA of ≈ 13× on a 12‑month basis. By contrast, the nearest AI‑enabled credit‑tech peers—Lufax (NASDAQ: LU) and JD Digits (HK: 9925)—still trade at P/E’s in the 30‑35× range and EV/EBITDA’s around 18‑22× despite similar growth trajectories. The dividend uplift (semi‑annual payout now 0.30 CNY per share) further narrows the yield gap, pushing Qfin’s effective dividend yield to ≈ 2.3%, versus sub‑1% yields for the peers.

Trading implication

The compressed multiples signal that Qfin is priced at a discount of 20‑30% relative to its peer set, reflecting market skepticism about margin expansion after a modest earnings beat. However, the combination of a solid earnings surprise, a dividend hike, and a valuation spread that still leaves room for upside suggests a bullish bias on the stock, especially if the company can sustain its AI‑driven cost efficiencies and expand credit‑originations. A mid‑term entry around the current level with a stop‑loss near ¥11.5 (≈ 10% downside) could capture the upside as the market re‑prices the discount, while a tight‑range short‑term trade may be justified if broader risk‑off sentiment or a pull‑back in Chinese fintech sentiment pressures the sector lower.