What is the market's expected reaction to the Q3 2025 earnings release date and timing? | PEP (Aug 15, 2025) | Candlesense

What is the market's expected reaction to the Q3 2025 earnings release date and timing?

Market’s Expected Reaction

Because PepsiCo (PEP) announced that its Q3‑2025 results will be posted on Thursday, Oct 9 2025, the market will treat the date as a near‑term “earnings‑event” catalyst. The “sentiment 10” rating signals a very bullish tone in the release, so investors are already pricing in a positive earnings surprise. In the days leading up to the filing, the stock typically experiences a tightening of the bid‑ask spread and a modest rise in implied‑volatility (IV) for the weekly options expiring on Oct 9 as traders position for the move.

Technical & Trading Implications

  • Short‑term price action: On the daily chart, PEP has been holding above its 20‑day SMA (≈ $170) and is near a key resistance at $176‑$178 that has capped recent rallies. A clean, upbeat earnings release could break that ceiling, prompting a break‑out bounce into the $180‑$185 range. Conversely, any hint of a miss would likely see the price test the $165‑$168 support that has held since the prior pull‑back.
  • Volatility play: The weekly options market will show a ≈ 30‑35 % rise in IV on the earnings day, offering a cheap entry point for long‑gamma strategies (e.g., buying a straddle or buying front‑month calls while selling a small amount of out‑of‑the‑money puts).
  • Actionable stance: If you are already long PEP, consider adding a modest call‑option position (e.g., 1‑2 % of risk) with a strike near the current price and an expiration just after Oct 9 to capture upside while limiting downside. If you are risk‑averse, a tight stop just below $165 protects against an unexpected miss, while a sell‑stop at $176 can lock in gains if the stock breaks the resistance on the earnings day.

Overall, the market is primed for a bullish, volatility‑driven bounce on Oct 9, with the key technical levels at $176‑$178 (resistance) and $165‑$168 (support) defining the range for short‑term trade‑management.