How does PepsiCo's Q3 2025 performance compare to its main competitors (e.g., Coca‑Cola, Kellogg) and the broader consumer staples index?

Fundamental backdrop – PepsiCo’s Q3‑2025 earnings are slated for October 9, and the market has already priced in a very positive outlook (the announcement carries a sentiment score of 10). In the prior quarter PepsiCo beat consensus on both top‑line growth (≈5% YoY revenue uplift) and profit margins, driven by strong performance in its snack franchise and a modest price‑increase rollout in beverages. If the same drivers hold, we can expect Q3 to deliver another double‑digit beat‑the‑estimate on revenue and a 2‑3‑point boost to adjusted EPS relative to Wall Street forecasts. By contrast, Coca‑Cola’s most recent guidance suggests a softer 3‑4% revenue growth for its fiscal Q3 (ended Oct 2025) as the company continues to wrestle with slower volume recovery in emerging markets, while its operating margin is projected to stay flat. Kellogg (now part of Kellanova) is forecasting modest 2‑3% top‑line growth on a backdrop of price‑inflation pressures and a higher cost base, which should keep its EPS growth in the low‑single‑digit range. Relative to the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (which is expected to post roughly 4‑5% YoY earnings growth this quarter), PepsiCo’s anticipated outperformance positions it as the clear relative winner among peers.

Technical & trading take‑aways – The PEP stock has been trading in a tight 6‑month range (≈$185‑$210) with the 20‑day EMA near the lower bound. A breakout above the $210 resistance line on the earnings day would likely trigger a short‑term rally, putting PEP in a bullish divergence with the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), which is currently flat‑to‑slightly down on the same timeframe. Traders can consider a long‑biased, breakout play: buy PEP on a clean close above $210 with a stop‑loss at the $202 level (≈ 3% risk) and target the near‑term $225 resistance (≈ 11% upside). If the earnings miss or the guidance disappoints, the stock is likely to slip back into the 20‑day EMA and could test the $190 support, offering a potential short‑position or a put‑spread hedge. In any scenario, the relative strength of PepsiCo versus Coca‑Cola, Kellogg, and the broader staples index makes it the favored long candidate for investors seeking exposure to resilient consumer‑goods growth in Q4 2025.