Fundamental outlook: PagBank’s Q2‑25 results show a 61 % YoY jump in net revenue to R$5.1 bn and a recurring net‑income surge to R$565 m, with banking revenue now accounting for 26 % of gross profit— a clear sign that the higher‑margin banking franchise is scaling. The underlying drivers are strong transaction volume growth, expanding merchant‑acquisition (particularly from e‑commerce and fintech partnerships) and a continued shift of consumer cash‑out to its digital platform. Management guidance has already hinted at double‑digit revenue growth for the next two quarters, and the 61 % surge suggests the “new normal” could settle around a mid‑40 % QoQ increase if the current loan‑origination and cross‑sell pipelines stay on track. Assuming a modest 45‑50 % QoQ growth in the banking segment (which now drives 1‑quarter‑ahead earnings) and stable cost‑base leverage, recurring net income could comfortably grow 30‑35 % QoQ, pushing Q3‑25 to roughly R$750‑800 m and Q4‑25 to the R$1.0‑1.1 bn range.
Market and technical implications: The stock has been trading near its 50‑day moving average with a bullish flag on the 4‑hour chart, and the earnings beat has already pushed the price above the 200‑day SMA, a classic bullish signal. Volume spikes on the release suggest buyers are pricing in the higher‑margin revenue mix. However, the stock still carries a modest forward‑P/E (≈15× forward FY25 earnings) and a high‑beta profile, meaning any miss on the next‑quarter guidance could trigger a rapid pull‑back. Trading plan: - Long bias: buy on dips near the 5‑day EMA pull‑backs, targeting a 10‑15 % upside to the next resistance band (~$30‑$32). - Stop: just below the 50‑day SMA (~$27.5) to protect against a possible earnings‑guidance miss. - Watch: any slowdown in loan growth or a rise in credit‑loss provisions could cap the revenue run‑rate; in that case, a short‑term sell‑stop at the 200‑day SMA (~$25) would preserve capital. Overall, the revenue‑and‑income trajectory remains strong, supporting a bullish outlook for net revenue and recurring net income across the next two quarters.