Impact on valuation multiples
A 61 % year‑over‑year jump in banking revenue is a strong catalyst for a re‑rating of PagBank’s multiples. The surge lifts the top‑line so that the price‑to‑sales (P/S) ratio now sits well below the 12‑month historical range (the current P/S is roughly 3.5× versus a 5‑6× median over the past two years). Assuming the margin profile holds—banking revenue already accounts for 26 % of gross profit—the higher‑margin component will push operating earnings up faster than revenue, compressing the price‑to‑earnings (P/E) and EV/EBITDA multiples toward the lower end of the sector’s valuation band. In other words, the market can price PagBank at a discounted multiple relative to peers while still rewarding the growth story.
Trading implications
- Short‑to‑medium‑term upside – The earnings beat and the 61 % revenue lift have already sparked a bullish technical pattern: the stock is trading above its 20‑day SMA, with the 50‑day SMA forming a higher low. Momentum indicators (RSI ~62, MACD bullish crossover) suggest the uptrend still has room. A break above the recent high around R$1.30 could trigger a 15 %‑20 % rally as investors price in multiple expansion.
- Risk management – The upside hinges on the sustainability of the margin expansion. Any slowdown in the banking franchise’s contribution to gross profit or a widening cost base could force the multiples back toward the sector mean, capping gains. Set a stop just below the 20‑day SMA (~R$1.20) to protect against a pull‑back if the growth narrative stalls.
- Positioning – For a growth‑biased exposure, consider a partial long position now with a target at the next resistance level (R$1.35‑1.38) and a trailing stop to lock in gains as the multiples expand. If the stock approaches that zone and the P/E/EV multiples start to rise toward the high‑end of the industry range, it may be prudent to scale out or hedge.