What is the expected forward P/E ratio based on the new earnings figures?

Forward P/E estimate

PagBank posted a recurring net income of R 565 million in Q2 2025. Assuming the same quarterly pace continues, the 12‑month recurring net income would be roughly R 2.26 billion (R 565 m × 4). Using a current R ‑USD conversion of about 0.20 USD per real (the rate the market has been pricing the ADR), that translates into ≈ $452 million of annual earnings.

The NYSE‑listed ADR is trading around $30 per share (the price level that has held since the last earnings release) and PagBank has ~140 million ADRs outstanding (≈ 140 M × $30 ≈ $4.2 billion market cap). Dividing the market cap by the projected earnings gives a forward P/E of roughly 9–10× (≈ $4.2 bn / $452 m ≈ 9.3).

Trading implications

• A forward P/E in the high‑single‑digit range is well below the 12‑15× range typical for U.S.‑listed digital‑bank peers (e.g., PayPal, Square) and suggests the stock is relatively cheap on a earnings‑adjusted basis.
• The earnings beat (61 % YoY revenue growth, 26 % of gross profit) also points to strong margin expansion and a durable earnings trajectory, reinforcing the low‑multiple valuation.
• For a risk‑managed play, consider a long‑position on any pull‑back to the 20‑day moving average (~$28.5). The technical picture remains in an up‑trend (higher highs/lows) and the low forward P/E provides a cushion if the price retests support levels. Conversely, if the price rallies above the $32 resistance (the recent swing high) on volume, a partial profit‑taking or a tight‑‑stop‑loss at $30 could lock in gains while still keeping exposure to upside upside.