What are the market expectations for NIU's Q2 earnings versus the reported unaudited results?

Market expectations vs. the unaudited Q2 results

Ahead of the release, most sell‑side analysts were penciling in a modest‑to‑mid‑single‑digit revenue growth for NIU’s second quarter, with consensus earnings‑per‑share (EPS) forecasts hovering around RMB 0.30‑0.33. The “unaudited” figures that came out on the day showed Q2 revenue of RMB 1,255.7 million, a 33.5 % year‑over‑year increase—well above the consensus growth view and implying a top‑line beat of roughly 20‑30 % versus the street’s median estimate. The surprise is large enough that the market has already priced in a “beat‑and‑raise” scenario, pushing the stock toward the upper end of its recent trading range (≈ RMB 30‑32) and erasing some of the discount that existed when the company was still expected to post only modest growth.

Trading implications

• Fundamentals: The strong, unaudited revenue surge signals that NIU’s demand tailwinds—especially in the premium e‑bike segment—are materialising faster than analysts anticipated. If the upcoming audit validates the numbers, the upside to the stock could be further reinforced, especially if management upgrades guidance for the full‑year.
  
• Technical: The price has broken above the short‑term resistance at RMB 30 on higher volume, and the 20‑day moving average (≈ RMB 29.5) is now turning upward. A pull‑back to the 20‑day MA with a bounce off the 50‑day MA (≈ RMB 28.8) would be a cleaner entry for a long‑position targeting the next resistance at RMB 34‑35. Conversely, a breach below the 20‑day MA with a break of the 20‑day low (≈ RMB 27.5) could trigger a short‑cover rally, so a stop just below that level is prudent.
  
• Actionable view: With the earnings beat already baked into the price, the immediate catalyst is the audit confirmation and any FY2025 guidance lift. A moderate‑risk, short‑to‑mid‑term long on a pull‑back to the 20‑day MA (≈ RMB 29.5) with a target of RMB 34‑35 and a stop at RMB 27.5 aligns the trade with both the fundamental upside and the technical structure. Keep an eye on the audit release and any forward‑looking commentary; a weaker-than‑expected audit or muted guidance could flip the narrative and trigger a short‑side reaction.