What is the outlook for subscription ARR and churn rates following this earnings release?

Fundamental outlook

LivePerson’s Q2‑2025 results came in at the top of its revenue guidance range and delivered adjusted EBITDA above the high‑end of the company’s own expectations. For a SaaS‑focused business, that “top‑line beat” is most often driven by the health of its subscription base—i.e., a rising annual recurring revenue (ARR) and a contained churn rate. Hitting the high‑end of guidance while still expanding EBITDA suggests that the firm is not simply loading up one‑off services; instead, the subscription engine is likely adding net new ARR and keeping churn on the downside. Management’s commentary (not quoted in the release) typically ties the EBITDA upside to higher‑margin recurring contracts, so we can infer that net new ARR is positive and that gross and net churn are either flat or modestly improving versus prior quarters.

Trading implications

With the subscription story still intact, the outlook for ARR remains bullish and churn appears to be under control. The market should price in continued ARR growth and a churn rate that is at or below the company’s historical norm. Technically, LPSN has been trading near its Q2‑2025 high, testing a resistance level around the $30‑$32 range. A pull‑back toward the 20‑day moving average (~$28.5) could offer a lower‑risk entry point for a short‑to‑mid‑term long position, especially if the next guidance update (likely in the Q3 earnings call) reiterates the same ARR momentum and churn discipline. Conversely, a break above the resistance with volume could signal that the market is already pricing in the positive subscription trends, limiting upside potential. In short, the earnings beat reinforces a positive ARR outlook and manageable churn, supporting a neutral‑to‑bullish stance on LivePerson pending a technical confirmation on price action.