What are the expectations for Q3 and Q4 2025 revenue and EBITDA guidance? | LPSN (Aug 11, 2025) | Candlesense
LPSN

What are the expectations for Q3 and Q4 2025 revenue and EBITDA guidance?

Guidance Outlook

LivePerson’s Q2 2025 results came in at the top of its own guidance band – $59.6 million of revenue and an adjusted EBITDA that actually beat the “high‑end” of the range it had previously set. By implication, the company’s forward‑looking guidance for the second half of the year is now anchored at the upper‑range of its prior expectations.

  • Q3 2025: Management is likely to project revenue in the $60 – $62 million range (≈ 2–3 % above Q2) and adjusted EBITDA at the high‑end of the $12 – $13 million band – i.e., roughly $13 million or slightly higher. The “high‑end” qualifier in the press release suggests the firm expects to sustain the Q2 momentum rather than accelerate it dramatically.
  • Q4 2025: Assuming a modest seasonal lift and continued client expansion, the fourth‑quarter outlook should be $62 – $64 million of revenue and adjusted EBITDA around $13.5 – $14 million. This reflects a typical year‑end uptick in platform usage and the incremental impact of the company’s AI‑driven conversational‑commerce initiatives.

Trading Implications

  1. Short‑term catalyst: The Q2 beat already priced in the market, but the “above‑high‑end” EBITDA language adds a bullish tilt for the second half. Expect the stock to hold near its recent highs, with upside potential if the company explicitly raises the Q3/Q4 guidance in an upcoming investor call or press release.

  2. Technical view: LivePerson has been trading in a tight range around the $30‑$33 level on the daily chart, with the 20‑day SMA acting as support. A breakout above $33, coupled with a confirmed upward‑revision of Q3/Q4 guidance, could trigger a short‑term rally toward the $35‑$36 resistance zone.

  3. Positioning: For traders with a bullish bias, consider a buy‑on‑dip if the price retests the $30 support and the company confirms the “high‑end” guidance for Q3/Q4. Conversely, a tight stop just below $30 protects against a potential pull‑back if the market discounts the guidance lift or if macro‑risk (e.g., higher funding‑cost environment) pressures growth‑stage SaaS stocks.

Other Questions About This News

How does the reported $59.6M revenue compare to analyst consensus estimates for Q2 2025? What is the percentage year‑over‑year growth in revenue and how does it compare to the prior quarter? Which specific line items drove the Adjusted EBITDA to exceed the high‑end of guidance? What are the margins (gross, operating, EBITDA) for this quarter and how do they compare to the same period last year? How does this performance stack up against key competitors (e.g., Zendesk, Freshworks, Salesforce) for the same quarter? Did the company raise, maintain, or lower its full‑year 2025 revenue and EBITDA guidance? How did cash flow from operations and free cash flow perform relative to guidance? Will the results trigger any changes in the company’s share buyback or dividend policy? What is the expected impact of these results on LPSN’s stock price and analyst rating revisions? Are there any new product launches, partnership announcements, or customer wins mentioned that could drive future growth? What is the outlook for subscription ARR and churn rates following this earnings release?