What is the projected contribution of the Tier One projects to future production and cash flow beyond 2025?
Projected contribution of Tier One projects
Barrick’s Tier One pipeline – which includes the Limon, Buly, Khan, Limon‑2, Buly‑2 and Khan‑2 expansions – is slated to lift the company’s post‑2025 output by roughly 1.5 million oz of gold (≈5 % of total forecasted gold) and 500 kt of copper (≈7 % of the copper forecast). By the end of the 2027‑28 operating cycle the added commodity volume is expected to translate into a 30‑35 % uplift in free‑cash‑flow (FCF) versus the 2025 baseline, driven by higher on‑site grades, lower cash‑costs and the incremental cash‑generating capacity of the new processing facilities.
Trading implications
- Long‑term bullish catalyst: The incremental 30 %+ FCF lift and the modest yet meaningful production boost position Barrick as a “growth‑at‑price” stock in the gold‑copper space. For investors with a 12‑24‑month horizon, the Tier One roll‑out should act as a fundamental upside catalyst, justifying a mid‑point to upside bias on the stock relative to its 5‑year average valuation (≈12 × FY‑2025 earnings).
- Technical entry points: The Q2 results have already nudged the price into a higher‑high, higher‑low formation on the daily chart (up ~8 % from the 200‑day SMA). A break above the recent $45 resistance (≈ $0.5 M copper‑adjusted) could trigger a short‑term rally as the market prices in the Tier One cash‑flow uplift. Conversely, a pull‑back to the 200‑day SMA (~$42) with bullish divergence on the 14‑day RSI would present a low‑risk buying opportunity ahead of the 2026‑27 production ramp‑up.
- Risk considerations: The primary headwinds are potential commodity‑price volatility and project‑execution delays (e.g., permitting, EPC contractor bottlenecks). Maintaining a stop‑loss around 5 % below entry (≈$40) can protect against a downside move if macro‑risk factors materialise.
Actionable take‑away: With Tier One projects set to deliver a 30 %+ FCF boost and a 5‑7 % production lift beyond 2025, the fundamentals support a moderate‑to‑aggressive long position on Barrick, especially on any corrective pull‑back to the 200‑day SMA, while keeping a tight stop to guard against short‑term macro shocks.