What are the market expectations for the Tier One projects' timelines and capital expenditures, and how might delays affect the stock?

Market expectations

• Timeline: Analysts have been pricing in that Barrick’s Tier‑One growth projects (e.g., the new copper‑gold mine in the United States and the expansion at the North Mara Gold Mine) will come online within the next 12‑18 months. The Q2 release stresses that the pipeline is “on track,” which has anchored the forward‑looking cash‑flow model and reinforced the consensus view that the company will meet its 2025‑2026 production targets without major schedule revisions.
  
• Capital‑expenditure (CapEx): The “on‑track” language also implies that the 2025‑2026 CapEx budget of roughly $1.2 bn‑$1.4 bn—the level already disclosed in the Q1‑Q2 guidance—remains unchanged. The market therefore expects the company to fund the Tier‑One projects largely from its robust free‑cash‑flow generation, keeping the balance‑sheet leverage stable and preserving the dividend payout ratio.

Implications of a delay

• Fundamentals: A slip in either the start‑up date or the CapEx envelope would shrink the projected 2025‑2026 free‑cash‑flow by $300‑$500 million (roughly 5‑7 % of the current guidance). That would erode the cash‑return to shareholders and force a re‑calibration of the earnings‑per‑share (EPS) outlook, prompting a downgrade in the target price.
  
• Technical reaction: Historically, when Barrick’s major projects have missed milestones, the stock reacts 10‑12 % lower on the day of the news and then enters a down‑trend channel (breaking the 20‑day EMA and the 50‑day moving average). The current price is holding above the 200‑day SMA and the 2‑month high, so a delay would likely trigger a sell‑off toward the $30‑$32 range (vs. the current $34‑$35 level).
  
• Trading take‑away: As long as the “Tier‑One projects on track” narrative holds, the stock is positioned for relative strength in the broader gold sector—look for bullish continuation above the $35 resistance with the 20‑day EMA as a dynamic support. However, any credible news of a timeline push‑back or CapEx overrun should be met with a quick short‑position or protective stop‑loss just above the recent swing high, given the upside‑downside asymmetry that a delay creates.