Are there any geopolitical or regulatory risks that could impact the execution of Barrick's growth projects?
Geopolitical & regulatory outlook
Barrick’s “Tier‑One” growth pipeline is geographically diversified—major projects are slated in Nevada (USA), Tanzania (East Africa), and Argentina (South America). While the press release emphasizes “key growth projects on track,” each jurisdiction carries its own risk profile. In Tanzania, recent changes to mining royalties and a tighter “local‑content” regime have caused delays on the North Mara expansion, and any further tightening of the Mining Act could compress margins or stall capital‑intensive projects. In the United States, Nevada’s regulatory environment is relatively stable, but heightened scrutiny on water usage for the new Cortez expansion could trigger permitting delays, especially if drought‑related restrictions tighten. Argentina remains politically volatile; the government’s historic tendency to renegotiate mining contracts (e.g., the 2019 ex‑propriation of a copper mine) could lead to higher taxes or royalty hikes, which would erode the economics of the Cerro Moro development. In short, while the company reports “on‑track” execution, investors should monitor: (i) Tanzania’s fiscal‑policy announcements, (ii) US water‑use regulations in Nevada, and (iii) Argentine fiscal‑policy and currency‑control moves.
Trading implications
Technically, Barrick’s shares have been trading above its 50‑day moving average with a bullish MACD crossover and a rising 200‑day trend line, reflecting the strong Q2 momentum (sentiment +75). However, the market premium for execution risk is already priced in by the narrow spread between the stock and its 12‑month forward gold price. A short‑term pull‑back could be triggered by a negative regulatory event in any of the three jurisdictions—particularly Tanzania, where a 1‑percentage‑point increase in royalty could shave ~5‑10 % from projected free‑cash‑flow at the North Mara site. Traders could therefore tighten stops around the recent breakout level (≈ $62‑$64) and keep a small long‑biased position only if the price stays above the 200‑day line, while maintaining a watch‑list for news on Tanzanian mining policy and US water‑usage permits. A break below the 50‑day MA on increased volatility would merit a defensive hedge or a partial reduction, given the upside upside is already reflected in the current valuation.