How will the merger impact the company’s exposure to foreign exchange and commodity price risk?

The stock‑for‑stock merger will blend Golden Ocean’s dry‑bulk shipping franchise—whose cash flow is tightly coupled to global commodity demand and the USD‑bias of freight contracts—with CMB.TECH’s technology‑focused, Europe‑centric business. As a result, the combined group will dilute its direct exposure to commodity‑price risk: a larger proportion of earnings will come from recurring software licences and services that are less cyclical than vessel charter rates. This diversification should lower the firm’s earnings‑beta to the global commodity market, reducing the volatility premium that traditionally drives GOGL’s valuation and giving the stock a more “defensive” profile in a soft‑commodity environment.

Conversely, the merger adds new foreign‑exchange (FX) dimensions. CMB.TECH generates the bulk of its revenue in euros and Swiss francs, while Golden Ocean’s balance sheet and freight contracts are USD‑denominated. The post‑merger entity will therefore hold a broader mix of currency assets and liabilities, increasing net FX exposure—particularly to the EUR/USD and CHF/USD pairs. Management will likely need to expand its hedging program (e.g., forward contracts, currency swaps) to offset the added currency mismatch.

Trading implications:

- Long‑GOGL / short‑CMBT may still be justified if the market under‑prices the commodity‑risk reduction, as the combined firm could trade at a higher EV/EBITDA multiple than either stand‑alone peer.

- FX‑sensitive investors should monitor the company’s hedging disclosures; a widening EUR/USD spread could pressure the equity price until hedges are put in place.

- Risk‑adjusted positioning: consider a modest long exposure to GOGL with a stop near the current 52‑week low, while keeping a small hedge (e.g., EUR‑USD forward) to protect against the newly‑added currency risk.