How will the merger affect Golden Ocean’s balance sheet and debt levels?

Balance‑sheet impact

Because the deal is a pure “stock‑for‑stock” exchange, Golden Ocean will not have to raise cash or issue new debt to fund the transaction. The balance sheet will therefore mainly reflect a re‑allocation of equity – Golden Ocean’s shareholders will receive CMB.TECH shares in exchange for a portion of GOGL’s existing shares, expanding the equity base of the combined entity. On the asset side, the two balance sheets will be consolidated, adding CMB.TECH’s ship‑building assets, inventories and working‑capital items to Golden Ocean’s already‑large fleet‑financing assets. The net effect is a larger total asset pool without a corresponding increase in liabilities.

Debt‑level and leverage

Since no cash is paid, the gross debt level of Golden Ocean is expected to stay essentially unchanged. However, the leverage ratio (Debt/EBITDA or Debt/Equity) will be re‑calibrated because the equity denominator will rise with the addition of CMB.TECH’s equity. In practice this means a modest improvement in the combined company’s leverage metrics, even though the absolute debt amount remains the same. The stronger balance‑sheet profile could translate into a tighter credit spread and a more attractive rating outlook, especially if the merged entity can generate higher, more stable cash flows from the expanded fleet and ship‑building operations.

Trading implications

• Credit‑risk premium: The anticipated modest leverage improvement should compress the credit‑risk premium on GOGL’s bonds and reduce the cost of borrowing for the group, supporting a bullish bias on the stock relative to peers with higher leverage.
  
• Equity‑valuation upside: The merger adds a strategic growth engine (CMB.TECH’s ship‑building capacity) that could lift earnings forecasts, creating room for a 5‑8 % upside in the next 6‑12 months if the market prices in the balance‑sheet strengthening.
  
• Risk management: Investors should still monitor integration‑related execution risk and any hidden off‑balance‑sheet liabilities that could surface during the consolidation process. A stop‑loss around 10 % below the current price would protect against unexpected debt‑related shocks, while a target of 8‑10 % upside captures the balance‑sheet and leverage benefits.