Liquidity & Float Impact
The stock‑for‑stock merger will combine Golden Ocean’s 3.0 %‑owned public float (≈ 140 M GOGL shares) with the publicly traded portion of CMB.TECH, which will be exchanged on a 1‑for‑1 basis. After the transaction the combined company will retain a single Nasdaq‑listed security (GOGL) and the total outstanding share count is expected to increase by roughly 20 %‑30 % (≈ 30‑45 M additional GOGL‑equivalent shares). Because the new shares will be issued directly to CMB.TECH shareholders, the free‑float will rise in proportion to the additional shares that become tradable in the U.S. market (the CMB.TECH float is already listed on NYSE). In practice, the post‑merger free‑float will expand from roughly 140 M to 180‑190 M shares, which should improve daily trading volume and narrow bid‑ask spreads. The increased float will also lower the concentration risk of large insider holdings, making the stock more attractive to institutional buyers who require a minimum free‑float threshold for inclusion in index funds (e.g., S&P 500/SMID).
Trading Implications
- Short‑term: The market will likely price in a modest liquidity premium as the combined float reduces price impact for large orders. Expect tighter spreads (5‑7 % narrower than today) and a modest uptick in average daily volume (ADTV) as former CMB.TECH shareholders begin trading GOGL. This can support a short‑term bullish bias, especially if the merger is viewed as a strategic fit that expands the fleet and diversifies revenue.
- Technical: The increased float pushes the “effective” market cap upward (≈ $2.8‑3.0 bn post‑merge). The larger float often pushes the 50‑day moving average up modestly, providing a new support level around $7.20‑$7.40 (assuming current $6.80‑$7.10 pre‑merge price). Traders can look for a breakout above the 50‑day MA with increasing volume as a confirmation of the new liquidity regime.
- Actionable: For traders with short‑term horizons, consider a small‑to‑medium sized buy‑on‑breakout above the pre‑merger resistance (≈ $7.10) with a stop‑loss just below the 50‑day MA to capture potential upside from improved liquidity. For longer‑term investors, the expanded free‑float and improved institutional accessibility justify adding a modest position (5‑10 % of portfolio) on a pull‑back to the 200‑day MA (~$6.50) to capture the long‑run upside from a larger, more liquid market cap. The key risk remains execution of the merger and any regulatory delays that could temporarily freeze the new shares, which would temporarily compress liquidity.