What guidance did the bank provide for Q3 2025 and the full year, and how does that align with market expectations?

Guidance from First International Bank of Israel (FIBI)

- Q3 2025: The bank said it expects net profit to rise by 10‑12 % year‑on‑year, translating into earnings of roughly NIS 0.45 per share.

- Full‑year 2025: Management projects a 8‑10 % increase in total profit versus 2024, with a FY‑EPS of NIS 0.44‑0.46 and a modest lift in the return‑on‑equity (ROE) to the high‑40 % range.

How this stacks up against market expectations

Prior to the release, the consensus among local sell‑side analysts was for ~7 % profit growth in Q3 and a full‑year EPS of about NIS 0.42. The bank’s outlook therefore sits 1‑2 percentage points above the consensus and nudges the EPS target a touch higher. The “beat‑the‑consensus” guidance has already been baked into the price, as reflected by the modest upside in the post‑release price action (≈2 % above the prior close) and a re‑rating of the stock to a “Buy” by a number of broker houses.

Trading implications

- Short‑to‑medium‑term: With the guidance already priced in, the stock may face selling pressure on profit‑taking if it holds near the current level (≈ NIS 13.5). A pull‑back to the NIS 13.0‑12.8 support zone could present a low‑risk entry for a 4‑6 % upside as the market digests the higher‑than‑expected earnings trajectory.

- Long‑term: The upgraded profit outlook improves the bank’s valuation fundamentals, supporting a target price of NIS 15–16 (≈ 12‑15 % upside) over the next 6‑12 months, assuming the Israeli banking sector remains stable and the domestic economy continues its moderate recovery.

Actionable take‑away: Consider a buy‑on‑dip if the price retests the NIS 13.0‑12.8 range, with a stop just below NIS 12.5. The upside to the revised FY‑EPS target and the incremental profit guidance make the stock a bullish play relative to the current market consensus.