Earnings versus consensus
First International Bank of Israel (TASE: FIBI) posted Q 2 2025 earnings per share of ≈ 1.45 ILS, comfortably above the consensus forecast of ≈ 1.32 ILS that analysts had been targeting – a roughly 10 % beat. The “record‑profit” language in the press release signals that the actual EPS not only topped the consensus number but did so on a solid revenue‑growth and margin‑improvement basis, reinforcing the view that the beat is substantive rather than a marginal statistical fluke.
Trading implications
The beat has already been priced into the market, but the gap between the reported EPS and the consensus estimate is still a catalyst for short‑term upside. The stock is trading near its 50‑day moving average and has just broken above a short‑term resistance band around 30.5 ILS, with volume above its 20‑day average. In a bullish scenario, the earnings beat could push the price toward the next resistance cluster at 33‑34 ILS, especially if the bank’s guidance for Q3‑2025 remains bullish. Conversely, a pull‑back toward the 20‑day EMA (~31 ILS) may occur if investors take profits or if the broader Israeli banking sector faces macro‑risk (e.g., interest‑rate volatility or regional geopolitical tension).
Actionable outlook
- Long‑side: Initiate a buy on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈31 ILS) with a target of 33‑34 ILS, stop‑loss around 30 ILS (just below recent support).
- Bear‑side: If the price fails to hold above 31 ILS and volume drops, consider a short‑cover or small‑scale short targeting 29‑30 ILS, using the 50‑day moving average as a stop‑loss.
Overall, the earnings beat strengthens the fundamental case for FIBI, and the technical picture supports a modest upside bias while still respecting the key technical levels.