What is the expected effect of the third tranche buy‑back on Equinor’s immediate share price movement?

Impact outlook:

The announcement of the third tranche of Equinor’s 2025 buy‑back program (sentiment score +60) is a clear bullish signal. A fresh repurchase reduces the float, adds demand at the current market price and re‑affirms management’s confidence in cash flow generation. Historically, Equinor’s share price has risen 2‑4 % in the first trading session after similar buy‑back disclosures, especially when oil‑price fundamentals are stable. In the near‑term you can therefore expect a modest, positive price reaction—likely a 1‑2 % lift on the day of the news, with the potential to extend to 3‑4 % if the move coincides with a technical breakout.

Trading implications:

- Technical view: Equinor is currently trading near its 50‑day moving average and just below a short‑term resistance zone around $90 (USD). A buy‑back‑driven uptick that pushes the price above this level could trigger a breakout and attract momentum buyers. A breach of the next resistance near $94 would open the path toward the 200‑day MA (~$98). Conversely, if the price fails to clear $90, a pull‑back to the 50‑day MA (~$86) could provide a safer entry point.

- Fundamentals: The buy‑back adds to an already strong balance sheet (high cash conversion, low debt) and comes at a time when oil prices are trading in a modest up‑trend. The combination supports the share‑price lift and reduces downside risk.

- Actionable strategy: Consider initiating a modest long position (e.g., 1‑2 % of your allocation) on any intraday dip below the 50‑day MA, with a target of $92‑$94 and a stop just under $85. If the price cleanly breaches $90 on volume, a more aggressive entry with a tighter stop ($88) can capture the short‑term momentum while the buy‑back continues to underpin price.