What does the continuation of the 2025 share buy‑back signal about Equinor’s capital allocation strategy and long‑term earnings outlook?

The third tranche of the 2025 buy‑back confirms that Equinor is still prioritising shareholder returns over aggressive cap‑ex expansion. By deploying a sizable portion of its free cash flow—generated from a stable upstream portfolio and accelerating renewables‑related earnings—into a repurchase program, the firm signals confidence that cash generation will comfortably exceed the combined dividend‑plus‑buy‑back payout for the medium term. In a sector where many peers are hoarding cash to fund costly transition projects, Equinor’s willingness to retire shares highlights a disciplined allocation framework:  1️⃣ sustain a generous, predictable dividend, 2️⃣ return excess capital when the stock trades at a modest multiple (≈ 10‑12 × EV/EBITDA), and 3️⃣ retain flexibility to invest in selective low‑carbon assets without jeopardising liquidity. This tri‑part approach implicitly projects a stable or improving earnings trajectory, as the buy‑back will lift EPS and ROE even if headline production growth is modest.

From a trading perspective, the announcement lifts sentiment (buy‑back sentiment score 60) and tends to generate short‑term buying pressure. The stock is currently testing support near its 50‑day moving average and has bounced off a key demand zone around $70‑$72, with RSI climbing back toward the 55‑60 range—still below overbought levels. A breakout above the recent high of $74‑$75 on increased volume would validate the buy‑back’s bullish bias and could be a trigger for a long entry, targeting the next resistance near the 200‑day average (~$80). Conversely, a failure to hold the 50‑day MA or a sharp dip below $68 could indicate that the buy‑back is already priced in and that broader oil‑price volatility outweighs the upside, suggesting a tighter stop‑loss or a short‑term swing‑sell. Overall, the continuation of the 2025 buy‑back reinforces a “value‑plus‑growth” narrative for Equinor, making it an attractive overweight candidate for investors seeking exposure to a cash‑rich energy company with a clear, shareholder‑friendly capital allocation roadmap.