How does the size and timing of this tranche compare to Equinor’s previous buy‑back programmes and to those of its industry peers?
Size & timing vs. Equinor’s own history
The third‑tranche of the 2025 buy‑back is being rolled out at roughly the same scale as the 2022‑24 programmes –‑ about $1.0‑$1.2 bn (≈ 10‑12 bn NOK) of shares repurchased. That amount is modestly larger than the first two tranches (each around $1 bn) and continues the pattern of a roughly annual 10‑12 bn NOK allocation that Equinor has used to return capital while keeping leverage low. The timing is also consistent with its historical cadence: the tranche was announced in the first quarter of the fiscal year, a point when the share price is still digesting Q4 earnings and the company can lock in a lower‑cost repurchase before any potential mid‑year rally.
Size & timing vs. peers
Among its integrated‑oil peers, the tranche is small to modest. Shell and BP have been running multi‑year buy‑back plans that total $5‑7 bn per year, while TotalEnergies typically earmarks $2‑3 bn annually. Moreover, peers often accelerate repurchases in Q2‑Q3 when cash flow peaks, whereas Equinor is front‑loading its 2025 allocation in Q1. The comparatively restrained size and early timing suggest Equinor is signalling confidence in its cash‑flow stability but is still conservative relative to the scale of capital returns in the sector.
Trading implication
The early‑year, steady‑size buy‑back is a bullish catalyst for EQNR. Technical charts show the stock hovering near its 200‑day moving average with a slight upward bias; the buy‑back should provide upward pressure on price and support the 20‑day SMA. Given the buy‑back is in line with past commitments but smaller than peers, the market may price EQNR at a modest discount to its peers’ valuation multiples. For traders, a long‑bias on breakout above the 20‑day SMA with a stop just below the 200‑day MA is appropriate, while keeping an eye on any forward‑looking earnings guidance that could either amplify or diminish the buy‑back’s impact. Volume spikes on the announcement can be used as a entry trigger, and the modest scale means the upside is likely incremental rather than a dramatic rally.