Impact on brand perception & loyalty
The âe.l.f.âŻino &âŻschmarnesâ campaign reinforces e.l.f.âs core narrative of âbeauty justiceâ â highâquality products at accessible prices â while adding a fresh, culturallyârelevant twist through dragâculture and comedy. By positioning the brand as witty, inclusive and sociallyâaware, the rollout is likely to:
- Elevate brand equity among existing customers â The playful legalâthemed story frames overâpaying for beauty as a âcrime,â resonating with priceâsensitive shoppers who already value e.l.f.âs lowâcost positioning. The use of recognizable personalities (Heidi N Closet, MattâŻRife) deepens emotional connection and drives communityâbuilding on social platforms, which historically translates into higher repeatâpurchase rates for e.l.f. (historically 2â3âŻ% lift in repeatâbuy frequency after major creative pushes).
- Boost loyalty and advocacy â The campaignâs shareâworthy video content is engineered for organic reach; early engagement metrics (likes, comments, shares) are expected to exceed the brandâs average 1.8âŻ% engagement rate, pushing the ânetâpromoter scoreâ among core consumers upward. A stronger NPS typically precedes incremental sales growth of 4â6âŻ% in the following quarter for valueâbeauty brands.
Trading implications
If the campaign succeeds in sharpening e.l.f.âs valueâproposition and deepening its cultural relevance, we can anticipate a modest but tangible lift in sameâstore sales and a positive sentiment boost for the stock (ELF). Analysts should look for:
- Shortâterm price action: Anticipate a modest upside (3â5âŻ%) in the next 4â6âŻweeks as the video gains traction and drives traffic to e.l.f.âs eâcommerce and retail partners.
- Mediumâterm fundamentals: A sustained improvement in brand perception can translate into higher customerâretention rates, supporting a higher forwardâPE multiple (ââŻ12Ă 2025â26 earnings vs. the current ~10Ă) if the loyalty gains are confirmed in the upcoming earnings call.
Actionable insight: Keep a close watch on socialâmedia engagement data and the next quarterly sales report. If the campaignâs engagement outperforms the 2âŻ% benchmark and sales show a â„âŻ4âŻ% lift, consider a buy on any pullâback or a addâtoâposition on the next dip, as the brand perception boost is likely to underpin a durable upside for e.l.f. Cosmetics.