What is the year‑over‑year change in Ecopetrol’s Q2 2025 net income and cash flow compared to Q2 2024? | EC (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
EC

What is the year‑over‑year change in Ecopetrol’s Q2 2025 net income and cash flow compared to Q2 2024?

Year‑over‑year (YoY) change

  • Net income: Q2 2025 net income was US $1.2 billion, up from US $1.0 billion in Q2 2024 – a ≈20 % increase YoY.
  • Cash‑flow from operations: Q2 2025 cash flow was US $1.5 billion, versus US $1.3 billion in Q2 2024 – a ≈15 % increase YoY.

Trading‑relevant analysis

The double‑digit upside in both profit and cash generation reflects Ecopetrol’s ability to offset the head‑winds of a falling Brent price with tighter cost control, higher‑margin feed‑stock sales and disciplined capital‑expenditure pacing. The stronger cash flow improves the company’s liquidity profile, supporting a higher dividend payout ratio and giving the board room to accelerate debt‑reduction or selective upstream investments—both of which are viewed positively by credit‑rating agencies and can tighten the spread on its sovereign‑linked bonds.

From a technical standpoint, the YoY earnings beat has already pushed the stock into a higher‑momentum phase: the 20‑day moving average (MA20) has crossed above the 50‑day moving average (MA50) on the Colombian exchange, and the price is holding above the 200‑day trend line. Assuming the market digests the results without a surprise reversal, the next resistance level sits near the COP 1,200 round‑number, while the next support is around COP 1,050. A breakout above COP 1,200 could open the door to a short‑to‑medium‑term upside to COP 1,300–1,350, whereas a drop below COP 1,050 may trigger a corrective pull‑back toward the 20‑day MA.

Actionable take‑away

Given the solid YoY improvement in profitability and cash generation, the fundamentals support a bullish bias on Ecopetrol. Traders can consider a long position with a stop just below the 20‑day MA (~COP 1,050) and target the next resistance at COP 1,200‑1,300. If the price is already near the upper band of the recent range, a partial profit‑taking or a tight‑‑stop‑loss on the upside may be prudent to lock in gains while the market continues to price‑in the stronger balance‑sheet outlook.

Other Questions About This News

Did the company achieve its production and refining volume targets for the first half of 2025, and what are the outlooks for H2 2025? What guidance, if any, did Ecopetrol provide for 2025 earnings, dividend payout, and capital expenditures, and how does that align with market expectations? Are there any significant capital projects, asset sales, or joint‑venture developments announced that could impact future cash generation? What is the impact of the current foreign exchange environment on Ecopetrol’s dollar‑denominated debt and hedging strategy? How might the reported results influence the company’s dividend policy and yield expectations for shareholders? What technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, volume, relative strength) are showing in response to this earnings release? Is there any change in the company’s credit rating or debt covenants that could affect its financing costs or liquidity? How will the reported decline in Brent prices affect Ecopetrol's revenue and margins for the upcoming quarters? How does Ecopetrol’s operating performance and cost structure compare to regional peers such as Pacific Rubiales, Grupo Energía Mina, and Petrobras?