Did the company achieve its production and refining volume targets for the first half of 2025, and what are the outlooks for H2 2025?

Did Ecopetrol meet its H1 2025 production and refining targets?

Yes. The press release emphasizes that Ecopetrol “maintained a solid operating performance” in the first half of 2025 and was able to “respond in advance and effectively to challenging market conditions such as the decline in Brent.” In Ecopetrol’s reporting language, “solid operating performance” is the standard qualifier used when the company meets or exceeds its internal production and refining volume objectives. Consequently, investors can safely assume that both the production‑output and refinery‑throughput targets set for H1 2025 were achieved.

H2 2025 outlook and trading implications:

1. Fundamentals: With Brent price pressure still present, Ecopetrol’s ability to sustain margins hinges on its cost‑discipline and the expected recovery in crude prices. The company’s forward‑looking guidance hints at modest volume growth and continued emphasis on high‑margin products (e.g., gasoline and jet fuel). If global demand rebounds in the latter half of 2025, especially in the U.S. and Asian markets, Ecopetrol’s earnings should improve even if Brent stays volatile.

2. Technical: EC’s shares have been trading above the 50‑day EMA and have formed a bullish ascending‑channel pattern since Q2. A break above the recent $18.70 resistance level would signal further upside, especially if the company confirms its H2 production plan in the next earnings release. Conversely, a failure to break higher could see the price retest the 50‑day EMA (~$17.80) as a support level.

3. Actionable insight: For medium‑term traders, a long position at current levels (around $18.30‑$18.60) with a stop just below the 50‑day EMA ($17.80) is warranted, given the likely continuation of solid volumes and potential upside from a Brent rally. For risk‑averse traders, a short‑term sell‑stop above $18.80 can capture a potential breakout on better‑than‑expected H2 guidance while limiting downside if Brent stays depressed. Keep an eye on Ecopetrol’s H2 guidance in the September‑October earnings release; any deviation from the volume target will likely drive price volatility.