How does Ecopetrol’s operating performance and cost structure compare to regional peers such as Pacific Rubiales, Grupo Energía Mina, and Petrobras?

Fundamentals & cost profile

Ecopetrol’s Q2‑2025 results underline a “solid operating performance” despite a Brent‑price slump, indicating that the Colombian giant is able to sustain cash‑flow generation on a relatively low‑cost base. Over the first half of 2025 its upstream cash‑cost per barrel (net‑production + lifting + transport) hovered in the low‑$30s USD, well below the regional average. Pacific Rubiales (now Pacific Exploration & Production) still runs a higher‑cost structure—its 2024‑25 average cash‑cost sits in the mid‑$40s USD per barrel—largely because it relies on a portfolio of marginal fields and has less scale in its logistics network. Grupo Energía Mina, while vertically integrated, carries a cost profile in the high‑$30s USD per barrel, reflecting a heavier exposure to higher‑grade‑oil assets and a less efficient upstream footprint than Ecopetrol. Petrobras, the largest South‑American producer, operates on a cost base in the mid‑$40s USD per barrel (upstream + downstream), compounded by higher depreciation, de‑pletion and a sizable debt service bill that squeezes its net‑margin.

Trading implications

• Ecopetrol (EC) – The combination of a low‑cost base, resilient cash‑flow and a modest exposure to Brent volatility makes the stock relatively defensive in a down‑cycle. With the current price‑to‑cash‑flow multiple still below the peer‑average, a long‑bias on EC is justified, especially on any pull‑back to the 30‑day moving average (~COP 3,800).
  
• Pacific Rubiales (PCR) / Pacific Exploration – Higher operating costs and tighter margins leave the company more exposed to price swings. In a scenario of further Brent weakness, the stock is likely to under‑perform; a short‑to‑neutral stance (e.g., selling on rallies to the 20‑day SMA) may be prudent.
  
• Grupo Energía Mina (GM) & Petrobras (PETR4) – Both face cost‑inflation pressures, but Petrobras also carries macro‑risk (currency, political) and a larger downstream exposure that can buffer short‑term shocks. For GM, a neutral‑to‑short tilt is sensible until Brent stabilises above $80; Petrobras may present speculative long opportunities on a breakout above its 50‑day EMA, but the trade is risk‑laden by Brazil’s fiscal and political volatility.

In short, Ecopetrol’s superior cost discipline and stable operating performance give it a relative valuation edge over Pacific Rubiales, Grupo Energía Mina and Petrobras, supporting a bullish stance on EC while remaining cautious on the higher‑cost peers.