What is the expected impact of the 13% YoY growth in Produced Water Handling on the company's market share?

Fundamental outlook

The 13 % year‑over‑year increase in Produced Water Handling (PWH) signals that Aris Water Solutions is successfully scaling the core service that differentiates it from generic water‑treatment peers. Since PWH is a high‑margin, contract‑heavy segment for the oil‑and‑gas industry, the sustained volume growth—now in the second straight quarter—should translate into a modest but measurable expansion of Aris’ market‑share footprint, especially in the U.S. Gulf‑Coast and Permian basins where operators are tightening water‑recycling mandates. Assuming the company can maintain its current pricing power and low‑capex model, the incremental volume is likely to lift quarterly revenue by roughly 5‑6 % (given the 4 % sequential rise) and improve gross margins by 30–40 bps, reinforcing earnings momentum and justifying a higher valuation multiple versus the broader water‑services index.

Technical & trading implications

From a chart perspective, ARIS has broken above its 20‑day moving average and is testing the $12.00–$12.50 resistance band that previously capped upside moves. The volume‑driven earnings beat and the record PWH volumes provide a catalyst that could trigger a short‑term breakout. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the 55–60 range, leaving room for upward momentum without immediate overbought concerns. A bullish entry around the $12.20 level, with a stop just below the 20‑day MA (~$11.70), positions traders to capture a potential 10–12 % rally if the market rewards the market‑share gains. Conversely, if the broader energy sector faces a pull‑back, the stock may revert to the $11.50 support zone, where a re‑test of the 20‑day MA could offer a lower‑risk re‑entry point. In short, the 13 % YoY PWH growth underpins a positive fundamental narrative that, when combined with the current technical setup, suggests a short‑to‑medium‑term upside bias for ARIS.