What guidance is the company providing for Q3 and full-year 2025 performance based on these results?

Guidance Outlook

Aris Water Solutions did not issue explicit Q3‑2025 or full‑year‑2025 guidance in its Q2 press release. The company’s commentary focused on the record‑volume performance of its Produced‑Water‑Handling (PWH) and the 35% YoY jump in recycled‑water volumes, which together delivered a $14.1 million net income for the quarter. In the absence of a formal outlook, investors must read the Q2 results as a de‑facto signal of the company’s near‑term trajectory.

Trading Implications

• Fundamentals: The sequential 4% rise in PWH volumes and the 13% YoY growth, coupled with a 35% surge in recycled‑water volumes, underscore a strengthening demand for Aris’ water‑management solutions—particularly in the oil‑&‑gas and industrial sectors that are tightening environmental compliance. The robust net‑income result (≈$14 MM) suggests margin expansion, which could translate into higher cash‑flow generation and capacity to fund growth initiatives.

• Forward‑looking expectations: While Aris has held back formal Q3/FY2025 guidance, the “record‑volume” narrative and the continued momentum in both PWH and recycled‑water segments imply that management is likely to target mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit growth in Q3 volumes and flat‑to‑low‑single‑digit net‑income growth for the full year. Traders should price in a modest upside bias, especially if the company follows the pattern of raising guidance after a strong quarter.

• Technical view: The stock has been trading in a tight range around its recent highs, with the 20‑day moving average holding just below the current price. A breakout above the $12‑$12.50 resistance zone on volume would signal that the market is pricing in a more aggressive Q3 outlook; a failure to break higher could keep the price constrained until formal guidance is released.

Actionable take‑away: Given the solid Q2 performance and the lack of explicit guidance, a cautious long‑position or add‑to‑existing holdings on pull‑backs is warranted, especially if the price retests the $11.50‑$12.00 support zone. Keep a watch for any forthcoming conference call or press release that adds Q3/FY2025 guidance—such an update could trigger a short‑term rally and present a buying opportunity. Conversely, if the company signals weaker-than‑expected Q3 volume growth, be prepared to trim exposure quickly.