How will the record Produced Water Handling volumes affect Aris Water Solutions' revenue outlook for the next quarters?

Fundamental outlook

Aris’ back‑to‑back record‑volume quarters in Produced Water Handling (4 % sequential growth and 13 % YoY) signal a solid, expanding revenue stream from its core oil‑&‑gas service franchise. Produced‑water volumes now sit at the highest levels in the company’s history, and the 35 % YoY jump in recycled‑water volumes adds a fresh, higher‑margin tail‑end to the mix. Assuming the same pricing mix holds, the volume lift alone should translate into a double‑digit revenue uplift for the next two quarters, comfortably out‑pacing the modest 5‑6 % growth the sector is forecasting for 2025. Management’s net‑income of $14.1 M in Q2 already reflects the upside, and unless the company signals a pricing compression, the revenue trajectory will stay on an upward slope.

Market dynamics & technical implications

The produced‑water market is still buoyed by elevated upstream drilling activity and tighter environmental regulations, both of which favor Aris’ “turn‑key” treatment solutions. As the sector’s demand curve remains steep, the company is well‑positioned to capture incremental contracts, especially in the Permian and Eagle Ford basins where volume growth is strongest. From a chart perspective, Aris has broken above its Q2‑Q3 2024 resistance (≈ $12.00) and is now testing the $13.00‑$13.50 range on higher-than‑average volume‑driven buying volume. The momentum indicator (RSI ≈ 66) still has room before hitting overbought, suggesting the rally can continue if the volume trend holds.

Actionable take‑away

The record‑produced‑water volumes are a fundamental catalyst for near‑term revenue expansion and should keep the stock on a bullish trajectory for the next 2‑3 quarters. Traders can look for buy‑on‑dip opportunities around the $12.00‑$12.30 level, with a short‑term target near $13.50–$14.00 if the volume‑driven earnings momentum remains intact. Keep an eye on any forward‑looking guidance in the upcoming Q3 earnings call; a raised revenue outlook would likely trigger a fresh upside swing, while a surprise pricing head‑wind could cap the upside. In short, the volume record underpins a positive, incremental revenue outlook and supports a moderately bullish stance on ARIS in the coming quarters.