What specific factors led to the decision to lower revenue guidance for 2025?

Factors behind the lowered 2025 revenue guidance

Aquaporin’s management cited a convergence of operational and market‑related headwinds that forced a downward revision of its 2025 top‑line outlook. The primary drivers were:

1. Slower‑than‑expected commercial roll‑out of its core membrane‑technology platform. Recent pipeline updates showed a lag in securing large‑scale utility and industrial contracts, with several flagship projects delayed or postponed due to tightening capital‑expenditure budgets in the water‑treatment sector.
   
2. Macro‑economic pressure and a more competitive landscape. The broader European and North‑American water‑management markets are experiencing a slowdown in new‑capacity spending, while rival technologies (e.g., advanced polymer membranes and emerging nanofiltration solutions) have eroded Aquaporin’s market share expectations. This prompted the company to recalibrate its revenue forecasts while still believing the underlying cost structure can sustain the prior EBITDA target.
   
3. Operational and supply‑chain constraints. Ongoing shortages in high‑purity polymer feedstock and a modest increase in component costs compressed margins, prompting management to adopt a more conservative revenue trajectory. The strategic review initiated alongside the guidance cut further signals that the board is re‑evaluating the growth pathway, possibly to re‑allocate capital to higher‑margin opportunities.

Trading implications

The announcement triggered a sharp, negative price reaction (down ~6‑8% on the day) and has left the stock in a bearish technical set‑up: the price now sits below the 20‑day moving average and is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, with RSI hovering in the 30‑35 range—signalling potential oversold conditions. However, the company’s decision to keep EBITDA guidance intact suggests that cash‑flow generation remains intact, which may attract value‑oriented investors if the strategic review yields a clear growth catalyst. Traders could consider short‑term bearish positions (e.g., put spreads or shorting the stock) on the premise of continued earnings pressure, while keeping an eye on any forthcoming strategic‑review updates that could trigger a reversal. If the review uncovers a new growth avenue, a rapid bounce could be possible, so a tight stop‑loss (e.g., 2‑3% above the entry for short positions) is advisable.