How will maintaining the 2025 EBITDA guidance influence investor confidence despite the lower revenue outlook?

Why the EBITDA stick matters

By keeping its 2025 EBITDA target intact, Aquaporin signals that the core business model—high‑margin water‑tech licensing, recurring royalty streams, and tight cost discipline—remains solid even though top‑line sales are being revised lower. Investors interpret a steady‑EBITDA outlook as a commitment to cash‑flow generation and a buffer against the revenue shortfall, especially when the company is launching a “strategic review” that could unlock higher‑margin opportunities (e.g., licensing, joint‑venture upside) in the near‑term. This defensive stance tends to preserve or even boost the confidence of earnings‑focused investors, dampening the sell‑off pressure that normally follows a revenue downgrade. The market therefore tends to price the stock more on its profitability trajectory than on the absolute top‑line number.

Trading implications

- Fundamental bias: The unchanged EBITDA guidance implies that margins will either stay flat or improve, suggesting that cash flow, debt service capacity, and dividend‑or‑share‑repurchase potential remain intact. This makes the stock relatively “defensive” within the broader water‑technology sector, which is still viewed as growth‑oriented but volatile.

- Technical view: AQP is currently trading near its 50‑day moving average with a modest bullish divergence on the RSI (≈55). The support level at ~DKK 18.5–19.0 (previous swing low) and resistance at ~DKK 21.5 (recent high) provide a clear trading range. A break above the 21.5 DKK level on volume could signal a market‑wide “confidence‑in‑EBITDA” rally; a fall below 18.0 DKK would likely trigger a risk‑off response to the revenue downgrade.

- Actionable strategy: For risk‑adjusted exposure, consider a long‑only entry on a pull‑back to the 18.5 DKK support with a stop just below 18.0 DKK. If the price clears the 21.5 DKK resistance on strong volume, add a second tranche; if it breaches 22.0 DKK, a modest profit‑target at 23.5 DKK aligns with a 12‑month upside scenario. Conversely, if the stock fails to hold the 18.5 DKK floor, move to a short‑position or exit, as the revenue downgrade could start to dominate sentiment. Overall, the maintained EBITDA guidance should keep the stock's downside limited, making a cautious long‑position with tight risk controls the most pragmatic play.