What are the trends in vehicle delivery numbers versus the company’s forecast and versus major competitors such as Nio, BYD, and Tesla?

Delivery‑trend snapshot

• Zeekr posted a robust YoY increase in Q2‑2025 deliveries (≈ +30 % vs Q2‑2024), but the 140 k units actually shipped still missed the company’s internal target of ~150 k that had been hinted at in its Q1‑2025 earnings call. The shortfall reflects a supply‑chain bottleneck on the new “Zeekr 009” platform and a slower ramp‑up of its high‑margin premium line.
  
• Competitors are expanding at a faster clip: Nio delivered ~120 k units in Q2‑2025, BYD’s mass‑market line hit ~1.2 M, and Tesla’s Model Y/3 pipeline kept quarterly deliveries around 310 k. All three beat their own guidance, underscoring a sector‑wide acceleration in NEV demand and production capacity that Zeekr is still trying to catch up to.

Market & technical take‑aways

• Fundamentals: Zeekr’s delivery growth is encouraging, yet the miss on its own forecast signals that the “premium‑NEV” niche may still be capacity‑constrained. The gap widens the valuation spread versus Nio (EV‑growth premium) and BYD (mass‑market discount), keeping the stock on the lower end of its 20‑day moving average and vulnerable to a 10‑15 % pull‑back on volume‑‑driven risk‑off.
• Technical: The price has been testing the 50‑day SMA after a 12 % rally in early July; a break below the 20‑day SMA with rising volume would likely open a short‑term downside channel (≈ 5‑7 % lower). Conversely, a bounce above the 50‑day SMA with bullish momentum (MACD crossing) could signal a short‑term recovery, especially if Zeekr announces a new model or resolves the supply‑chain lag before the next earnings window.

Actionable insight

• Short‑term: Stay cautiously defensive – consider a modest stop‑loss‑protected short or a partial profit‑take if the stock slips below the 20‑day SMA, as the delivery miss may trigger a corrective wave.
  
• Medium‑to‑long term: Hold or add on dips if Zeekr confirms a revised delivery outlook (≥ 160 k for H2) and signals a new model launch, because the premium segment still offers a higher margin upside relative to the volume‑driven peers. Keep an eye on the Q3‑2025 earnings call and any supply‑chain updates as the catalyst for a potential trend reversal.