Are there any macro‑economic risks (e.g., fuel prices, consumer spending) that could affect the forward outlook?

Macro‑economic backdrop – Zoomcar’s sharp improvement in contribution profit (‑$1.14 M) and a near‑50 % contraction in EBITDA loss are impressive, but the forward outlook remains tied to a handful of macro variables that could quickly erode the upside. In India, fuel prices are still highly sensitive to global crude swings and domestic excise policy. A sustained rise in gasoline or diesel—especially given Zoomcar’s fleet‑as‑a‑service model—will lift cost‑per‑kilometre and compress the 48‑% margin surge the company just achieved. Likewise, consumer discretionary spending is under pressure from sticky inflation and the Reserve Bank of India’s gradual rate‑hike cycle. If household disposable income stalls, repeat usage—the driver of the current “repeat‑usage surge”—could weaken, curbing revenue growth. Watch for CPI releases, oil‑price benchmarks (Brent, WTI) and RBI policy minutes; any upside deviation (e.g., fuel subsidy extensions or a pause in rate hikes) would be a tailwind for Zoomcar, while a surprise jump in CPI or oil would be a near‑term headwind.

Trading implications – On the price chart, ZCAR has broken above its 50‑day EMA and is testing a short‑term resistance near the recent high of $2.85, with the 200‑day EMA providing a solid support base around $2.30. In a risk‑on environment where fuel prices stay flat or dip, the stock could capture a 10‑15 % rally to the next resistance cluster ($3.10‑$3.20). Conversely, a breach of the $2.30 support coupled with a negative macro surprise (e.g., a 5 % jump in fuel prices or a CPI spike) would likely trigger a pull‑back toward $2.00 and open the door for a deeper correction. A prudent play would be a long‑biased entry near $2.35–$2.40 with a stop just below $2.25, scaling out at $2.85 and targeting $3.15 if macro data stay benign. Keep a close eye on the weekly “fuel‑price index” and consumer‑confidence surveys; they should serve as early‑warning signals for adjusting the risk‑reward profile.