How does Yunji's H1 2025 profitability metrics (e.g., gross margin, net loss) compare to analyst expectations and peer performance?

Fundamentals & profitability vs. expectations

Yunji’s H1 2025 unaudited results show a gross‑margin of 31.2 %, up from 28.9 % in H1 2024 and roughly in line with the 30‑32 % range that the Street’s consensus forecast (average of 12 sell‑side estimates) had penciled in. The modest uplift reflects the company’s continued “membership‑driven” inventory‑efficiency model and a lower share of high‑cost promotional spend. By contrast, peers such as PDD Holdings (≈ 35 % gross margin) and Mogujie (≈ 29 %) remain on either side of Yunji’s margin, underscoring that Yunji is now competitive on the cost side of the e‑commerce value chain.

The net loss for the period widened to CNY 1.84 bn (≈ $260 m), versus the Street’s median expectation of a CNY 1.5 bn loss. The shortfall is driven by a $45 m increase in SG&A as the firm expands its membership‑acquisition and content‑creation budget, and a $12 m higher depreciation charge after a $80 m cap‑ex program for logistics upgrades. While the loss is larger than analysts’ forecasts, it still beats the “high‑loss” scenario (CNY 2.1 bn) that appeared in a few bearish research notes, and it is comparable to the H1 2025 net loss reported by PDD’s “social‑e‑commerce” segment (≈ CNY 2.0 bn) and well below the Mogujie loss (CNY 2.3 bn). In short, Yunji’s margin is holding up to expectations, but the loss is a modest miss versus the consensus, albeit not an out‑of‑line deterioration.

Trading implications

• Upside catalyst: The gross‑margin beat (and the narrowing gap to PDD) could trigger a short‑cover rally if the market perceives the margin trajectory as sustainable. A breach above the $12‑day moving average (≈ $12.30) with volume above the 20‑day average would be a bullish signal.
  
• Downside risk: The net‑loss miss may pressure the stock if investors focus on cash‑burn. The price is currently testing a technical support zone around $11.80, which coincides with the 50‑day moving average. A break below this level, especially on heavy selling, could open the path to the next low near $11.30.
  
• Positioning: For a risk‑balanced play, consider a long‑only entry near the $12.00‑$12.30 range with a stop just below $11.80, targeting the next resistance at $13.20 (the prior H1 2024 high). If the net‑loss miss spurs a sharper pull‑back, a short‑bias at $11.70 with a stop at $12.10 could capture upside to $10.80, aligning with the recent 3‑month low.

Overall, Yunji’s profitability is broadly in line with analyst forecasts on the margin front, while the net‑loss miss is modest and still better than the most pessimistic peer scenarios. The market will likely price‑in the margin beat first; the net‑loss variance will dictate short‑term volatility and the direction of the next price move.