What is the projected market size for KRAS G12D‑mutated NSCLC and how might this affect Verastim's revenue forecasts? | VSTM (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
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What is the projected market size for KRAS G12D‑mutated NSCLC and how might this affect Verastim's revenue forecasts?

Projected market size

KRAS G12D‑mutated NSCLC is a niche but rapidly expanding segment of the broader KRAS‑driven lung‑cancer market. The KRAS G12D alteration is found in roughly 3‑4 % of adenocarcinoma cases, which translates to about 70 000‑80 000 new NSCLC patients worldwide each year (≈ 2.5 million new NSCLC diagnoses globally). If Verastim can price VS‑7375 (GFH375) in line with other KRAS‑targeted oral agents—≈ US $100 k‑$120 k per patient per year—the addressable revenue pool sits in the $7 billion‑$9 billion range. Even a modest 5‑10 % market penetration would generate $350 million‑$900 million of annual sales once the product is commercialised.

Impact on Verastim’s revenue forecasts

The positive Phase 1/2 data from GenFleet in China moves the drug from a “pre‑clinical” to a “near‑launch” trajectory, meaning Verastim can now incorporate a realistic sales upside into its 2025‑2027 guidance. Assuming the company secures a launch in the US, EU and China and captures 5 % of the global KRAS G12D NSCLC market within the first 3 years, incremental revenue could be $150 million‑$250 million per year above its current baseline. This would materially lift the company’s top‑line outlook, especially given the historically low R‑RAS‑targeted pipeline in the oncology space.

Trading implications

  • Bullish catalyst: The data release and the late‑breaking abstract are likely to trigger a short‑to‑medium‑term price rally as investors price in the newly quantified market opportunity.
  • Risk considerations: The upside hinges on successful regulatory filings, pricing negotiations (particularly in China) and the ability to capture a meaningful share of a highly competitive KRAS‑targeted landscape (e.g., Amgen’s sotorasib, Mirati’s adagrasib).
  • Actionable view: For traders with a bullish bias on Verastim, a buy on any pull‑back to the 20‑day moving average is justified, targeting a 15‑20 % upside over the next 3‑6 months. Conversely, investors should monitor upcoming regulatory milestones (e.g., IND filing, Phase 3 initiation) for potential volatility.

Other Questions About This News

How large was the patient cohort in the Chinese study, and are there plans to expand enrollment globally? How does GFH375 (VS‑7375) compare to existing KRAS‑targeted agents from competitors such as Amgen’s sotorasib or Mirati’s adagrasib in terms of potency, selectivity, and dosing convenience? Are there any upcoming data readouts, additional trial cohorts, or combination therapy studies that could further de‑risk the commercial potential of GFH375? What are the expected timelines for regulatory approval of GFH375 (VS-7375) in China and globally? How does the updated safety and efficacy data compare to existing KRAS G12D inhibitors in development? Will the positive Phase 1/2 data trigger any milestone payments or additional funding from GenFleet Therapeutics to Verastim? How might this data release impact Verastim's enrollment and partnership negotiations for future trials? What are the key efficacy endpoints reported in the Phase 1/2 study and how do they compare to historical benchmarks for KRAS G12D NSCLC therapies? What safety signals or adverse event profiles were observed, and could they affect the drug’s regulatory pathway or market acceptance? What is the anticipated timeline for filing a New Drug Application (NDA) or seeking regulatory approval in China and other major markets? How will the partnership with GenFleet Therapeutics impact revenue sharing, commercialization rights, and cost structure for Verastim Oncology? What is the projected market size for a KRAS G12D‑targeted oral inhibitor in advanced NSCLC, both in China and worldwide? Will the positive data trigger any changes in the company’s guidance or financial forecasts? What are the potential pricing strategies for GFH375 in China, and how might they differ from pricing in other regions?