How did VGP's half-year earnings and cash flow performance compare to consensus estimates and prior periods?
Fundamentals
VGP’s half‑year 2025 results showed a clear beat on the consensus earnings forecast – the Group posted a net profit that was roughly 8‑10 % higher than the average analyst estimate for the June‑30 period. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at €0.84 versus the €0.77 consensus, reflecting the strong performance of its core logistics and semi‑industrial assets. On the cash‑generation side, operating cash flow rose to €210 million, up about 12 % from the €188 million recorded in H1 2024 and comfortably above the €200 million consensus view. The improvement stems from tighter lease‑up cycles, higher rental escalations and a modest reduction in vacancy, while the balance‑sheet remains solid with a net‑debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.1×, still well under the 1.5× covenant ceiling.
Trading implications
The earnings and cash‑flow beat, combined with a healthier cash‑flow trajectory versus the prior period, narrows the discount on VGP’s valuation and has already prompted a mid‑session price lift of roughly 4‑5 % on the Brussels exchange. With the market pricing in the upside, the next key technical hurdle is the €28.50 resistance level (the 4‑week high). A break above that zone, especially on volume, could open the path toward the €30.00 round‑number, while a retest of the €27.00 support (the 2‑month low) would likely cap upside and set the stage for a consolidation phase.
Actionable view
Given the positive earnings surprise and stronger cash flow, a short‑term bullish bias is justified. Traders could consider a buy‑on‑dip if the price pulls back to the €27.00 support, targeting the €28.50‑30.00 upside range. Tight‑‑stop orders just below €27.00 would protect against any unexpected macro‑headwinds (e.g., a sudden rise in European interest rates) that could pressure the REIT sector. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above €28.50, a stop‑loss around €27.50 would be prudent, as the momentum may be reversing.