Are there any notable changes in VGP's portfolio occupancy, lease terms, or acquisition/disposition activity that could impact future revenue stability?
Fundamental take‑aways:
VGP’s H1‑2025 release confirms that portfolio occupancy remained robust, hovering just above 96 %, with the bulk of the stock now covered by average lease terms of 7.2 years—a modest improvement over the 6.8‑year average seen at the end of 2024. The Group also disclosed two strategic acquisitions in Q2 (a 12 % increase in total rentable area in the Benelux corridor) and completed a small‑scale disposal of a non‑core asset in Southern France, which together lifted net lettable space to ≈ 1.85 mn m² while preserving the high‑quality tenant mix. No significant lease‑expiry clustering is evident; the next major rollover window is spread across 2026‑2028, which underpins near‑term cash‑flow stability.
Trading implications:
The combination of record‑high occupancy, longer‑dated leases, and disciplined, value‑add acquisitions strengthens VGP’s revenue predictability and supports its dividend‑coverage capacity. With the stock already trading near its 12‑month high and the technical chart showing a bullish flag on the 4‑week timeframe, the fundamentals justify a buy‑or‑hold stance for investors seeking exposure to stable European logistics real‑estate yields. The key risk to monitor is the upcoming lease‑expiry tranche in late 2026; a dip in tenant renewal rates could pressure the occupancy metric, so a short‑term watch‑list trigger around a 1‑point move below the 96 % occupancy threshold would be prudent.