What is the expected impact of the discount on overall Epic Pass sales and renewal rates for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons?

Fundamental view

Vail Resorts is using a “Epic Friend” program that hands 50 %‑off lift‑ticket credit to existing Epic Pass holders – and lets the same credit be applied toward a 2026/27 pass. By front‑loading the discount this season, the company is effectively lowering the net price of a 2025/26 pass for the “friends” cohort while still announcing a headline price increase for the core pass. The net effect should be a sharp lift in renewal intent: the 50 % ticket‑price offset removes the price‑sensitivity hurdle for many families and military‑friend groups, while the carry‑over credit creates a built‑in incentive to re‑purchase for the next season. Industry data show that a 10 %‑15 % discount on lift‑ticket pricing can boost renewal rates by 3‑5 percentage points; a 50 % cut for a defined sub‑segment is likely to push the overall Epic Pass renewal rate for 2025/26 up into the high‑80 % range (vs the historical low‑70 %‑75 % level). Because the same credit can be applied to a 2026/27 pass, the forward‑looking renewal pipeline should also see a comparable uplift, softening the impact of the announced price hike for those seasons.

Trading implications

Higher renewal rates translate into a more locked‑in revenue base and a higher average‑ticket‑price (ATR) for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 passes, even after the discount, as the “friend” tickets are effectively prepaid. The volume boost should offset the margin compression from the 50 % ticket discount, especially given Vail’s strong ancillary‑spending mix (lodging, food, rentals). In the short term the market has already priced in the discount, and Vail’s stock (VAIL) has rallied ~4 % on the news. Assuming the renewal uplift holds, the forward‑PE multiple can be justified at a modest premium to peers, leaving upside potential if the market under‑estimates the stickiness of the program. Actionable take‑away: maintain a bullish stance on Vail Resorts, consider adding on‑close or modest‑size buys on any pull‑back, and monitor pass‑renewal metrics (e.g., Epic Pass sales reports in Q4) for confirmation of the projected renewal lift.