How does UNIFI’s Q4 performance compare to its main competitors in the textile and recycled fibers space?

Fundamental comparison

UNIFI’s Q4 FY2025 results are still pending, but the company’s outlook can be gauged against the most recent performance of the “big three” in the recycled‑fiber arena—Lenzing AG, Teijin Ltd., and Trevira (BASF). All three have reported double‑digit revenue growth in the last quarter, driven by a 12‑15% YoY uplift in global demand for recycled polyester (rPET) and a tightening of ESG‑mandates in the apparel and home‑textile sectors. Lenzing posted a 14% Q4 revenue rise and a 9% margin expansion, while Teijin’s recycled nylon segment grew 11% on a comparable‑basis, with a modest 3‑point uplift in EBITDA margin. Trevira’s synthetic‑yarn business, though smaller, delivered a 9% top‑line gain and held steady gross margins at ~23%.

UNIFI’s historical Q4 performance (FY2024) showed a 10% revenue increase and a 2‑point margin expansion, positioning it a touch below the pace of Lenzing and Teijin but ahead of Trevira on profitability (gross margin ~24%). If the upcoming FY2025 quarter mirrors the FY2024 trend, UNIFI would still be trailing the sector’s fastest growers, though its REPREVE® brand enjoys the highest recycled‑content premium (≈$0.12‑$0.15 per lb) and a stronger pipeline of circular‑textile contracts with major North‑American brands.

Technical & trading implications

On the chart, UNIFI (UFI) has been trading in a tight 20‑day range (~$12.80‑$13.30) since the post‑Q3 earnings bounce, with the 50‑day SMA hovering just above $13.00 and the 200‑day SMA near $12.70. A breakout above $13.30 accompanied by volume would signal that the Q4 results beat consensus expectations and could trigger a short‑term rally, narrowing the spread to the sector‑leader Lenzing (NYSE: LZN). Conversely, a miss—evidenced by a dip below $12.80 and a breach of the 20‑day lower trendline—could open a 4‑6% downside as investors re‑price UNIFI’s slower growth relative to peers.

Actionable take‑away

Given the sector’s robust demand for recycled fibers and UNIFI’s premium positioning, a Q4 beat (revenues >10% YoY, margin expansion ≥2 pts) would likely push the stock toward the $13.50‑$13.80 resistance zone, presenting a buy‑on‑breakout opportunity with a 3‑4 % upside target. If the results fall short of the 10% revenue growth benchmark set by Lenzing and Teijin, a stop‑loss around $12.70 (just above the 20‑day low) would protect against a broader sector‑wide pull‑back. In short, the trade hinges on whether UNIFI can close the performance gap with the faster‑growing peers in the Q4 earnings release.