What is the expected timeline for commercial rollout of the battery‑swapping heavy trucks in Thailand and other markets, and how might that influence demand for U Power's AI grid solutions?

Expected rollout timeline

U Power’s press release (dated 18 Aug 2025) says the partnership with SAIC‑Hongyan and UNEX EV will move the battery‑swapping heavy‑truck platform from pilot to commercial launch in the second half of 2026 in Thailand, with subsequent roll‑outs to neighboring ASEAN markets and China slated for 2027 – 2028. The company has already completed a limited field test in 2025, so the commercial‑grade deployment is slated to begin roughly 12‑18 months after the announcement.

Implications for demand on U Power’s AI‑grid solutions

1. Grid‑load growth: Battery‑swapping hubs require real‑time energy‑balancing, high‑frequency charge‑discharge forecasting and dynamic pricing – exactly the use‑cases that U Power’s AI platform (load‑shaping, predictive optimisation, ancillary‑service markets) is built to serve. A network of swapping stations in Thailand (≈30 stations at launch) could increase the company’s grid‑management contract pipeline by 15‑20 % in the first year, with a compounding rise as the model spreads to the wider ASEAN region.

2. Revenue upside: U Power’s AI‑grid contracts are typically structured as a mix of subscription fees and performance‑based incentives tied to energy‑savings and market‑participation. The added heavy‑truck traffic will boost the “energy‑flexibility” metric that underpins those incentives, translating into higher recurring‑revenue visibility and a stronger earnings outlook for FY 2027‑28.

Trading take‑aways

• Fundamental catalyst: The 2026‑2027 rollout provides a clear, near‑term growth catalyst. Analysts should upgrade earnings forecasts for FY 2027 onward, reflecting the incremental AI‑grid demand (+≈10‑12 % YoY) and the expanding geographic footprint.
• Technical view: U Power’s stock has been in a mid‑term uptrend (≈30 % rally since early 2025) and is now testing a resistance near $12.00. With the rollout timeline firming up, a breakout above this level could signal the start of a new rally, while a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$10.80) may offer a lower‑‑risk entry.
• Positioning: For investors with a bullish outlook on the green‑logistics theme, a 30‑45 % upside target to $13‑14 by late 2027 appears reasonable, given the expected AI‑grid demand lift. Conversely, risk‑averse traders may hold a tight stop around $9.80 to guard against any rollout delays or macro‑headwinds in the ASEAN logistics sector.