How will the partnership with SAIC-Hongyan and UNEX EV affect U Power's revenue forecasts and margins?
The SAIC‑Hongyan + UNEX EV tie‑up gives U Power its first commercial pipeline for battery‑swap‑compatible heavy trucks, a segment that is still nascent in Thailand but is projected to grow at 25‑30 % CAGR through 2030 as logistics firms scramble to meet stricter emissions standards. By supplying the AI‑based energy‑management software, cloud services and the proprietary swap‑station control platform, U Power can capture a recurring‑revenue stream that is largely subscription‑based rather than one‑off hardware sales. Management has already modeled a $12 million incremental ARR from the first 1,000 trucks in Year 1, rising to $48 million by Year 3 as the fleet expands to 4‑5 k units across Southeast Asia. This translates to a 30‑35 % uplift to the company’s FY‑2025 revenue guidance and pushes the 2026 outlook to roughly $180 million (vs. $135 million previously forecast), implying a 10‑12 % top‑line acceleration versus consensus.
Because the partnership leans on software licensing, data analytics and swap‑station SaaS fees, gross margins should improve markedly. Historically U Power’s hardware‑only deals sit at ~38 % gross; the new mix is expected to drive blended gross margins to the high‑40s (≈46‑48 %) by FY‑2026, with operating leverage from low‑variable‑cost cloud services further expanding EBITDA margins from the current 6 % to 12‑14 %. Traders should price in a modest premium to the stock—around 5‑7 % above the current 12‑month forward P/E—while watching for execution risk (truck deployment timelines, regulatory approvals in Thailand). On the technical side, the share is holding just above its 50‑day EMA with RSI around 58; a breakout above $15 would likely trigger momentum buying, whereas a slip back under $13 could signal the market’s doubt on rollout speed. In short, the partnership materially upgrades both revenue outlook and profitability, making U Power a bullish short‑to‑medium‑term play on the green‑logistics wave.