What potential partnership or licensing opportunities could arise from the successful Phase 2/3 results, and how might they affect dilution or share price?

Potential partnership / licensing upside

If the Phase 2 data in NPM1‑mutated AML or the forthcoming Phase 3 read‑out for the VISTA‑blocking antibody (TBS‑2025) confirm a robust efficacy signal with an acceptable safety profile, TuHURA becomes a very attractive “bolt‑on” asset for larger oncology‑focused pharma companies that lack an in‑house VISTA or menin‑targeted pipeline. Historically, similar early‑stage immuno‑oncology programs have been out‑licensed to Big‑Pharma for upfront cash, staged milestone payments and tiered royalties (often 8‑12 % on net sales). A successful read‑out could also trigger a co‑development partnership with a menin‑inhibitor partner (e.g., Syndax, Keros) that would provide non‑dilutive funding to cover the expensive Phase 2/3 costs and give TuHURA access to broader trial networks. Such deals would materially improve the company’s cash runway, reduce the need for equity financing, and instantly re‑price the stock on the prospect of a multi‑digit‑million‑dollar revenue stream.

Impact on dilution and share price

The market typically rewards a confirmed partnership with a sharp price rally; in comparable cases (e.g., Iovance, Nektar) stocks have jumped 30‑60 % on licensing announcements and subsequently traded at premium EV/EBITDA multiples relative to peers. If TuHURA can secure an upfront payment in the $30‑50 M range plus $5‑10 M in per‑patient milestones, the cash infusion would offset any near‑term financing that might otherwise be raised via a private placement, thereby limiting dilution. Conversely, if the company still needs to fund the Phase 3 trial before any deal materializes, a modest equity raise (e.g., $40 M at a 30 % discount) could dilute existing shareholders by ~10‑12 % and exert downward pressure on the price. Traders should therefore monitor the 1‑month window leading up to the Phase 3 read‑out for partnership chatter (SEC S‑1 filings, press releases, and conference call hints). A practical entry strategy would be to buy on a pull‑back to the $2.20‑$2.35 range (if current price is around $2.65) with a stop just below the 50‑day moving average (~$2.10) and target the $3.20‑$3.50 zone where prior highs and the 200‑day SMA intersect, reflecting the upside potential of a licensing event. If a deal is announced, consider scaling into the rally; if dilution is disclosed, tighten stops and reassess the risk‑reward profile.