What are the potential short‑term effects of the permit delay on Tesla’s earnings guidance and stock price?

Short‑term earnings guidance impact

Because Tesla has not yet filed for the New York autonomous‑vehicle permits, the “robotaxi” rollout timeline is being pushed back. Management will likely have to temper the near‑term revenue contribution from the robotaxi business in its next earnings guidance, especially if the permit‑grant process drags into the second half of the year. Analysts will therefore downgrade the “autonomous‑driving” revenue runway, trimming the 2025‑2026 earnings outlook by a few percentage points. The market will price this as a modest earnings‑margin hit (≈0.5‑1 % of total FY‑24 earnings) until the permitting hurdle is cleared.

Stock‑price reaction & trading view

The news is already reflected in a negative sentiment score (‑25) and a modest sell‑off on the day of release. On the daily chart TSLA is testing the 20‑day EMA around $185 and the 61‑day trend line near $190, both of which have acted as resistance in the past week. A breach below the 20‑day EMA would open the door to a short‑term correction toward the $175‑$170 support zone, with a potential 3‑4 % downside on the next 2‑3 sessions. Conversely, if the market digests the permit delay as a temporary hiccup and the price holds above the EMA, the $200‑$205 range remains viable for a bounce‑back, especially on any positive update on the permitting process.

Actionable take‑away

- Short‑term bias: Lean bearish to $175‑$170 on a break of $185, targeting a 3‑4 % pull‑back.

- Risk management: Tight stop just above the 20‑day EMA (~$188) to limit exposure if the narrative turns positive.

- Long‑term perspective: Keep a watch on any permit‑approval news; a green‑light could quickly lift the robotaxi earnings outlook and reignite the $200‑$210 upside.