How does this development influence the risk profile of Tesla’s upcoming autonomous vehicle milestones and related milestones in analyst models?

Regulatory‑delay risk added to Tesla’s autonomous‑vehicle timeline

The fact that Tesla is already recruiting “robotaxi” test drivers in Queens while still without a permit to run on New York streets highlights a widening gap between the company’s public milestones and the practical, city‑level approvals it still needs. Analyst models that currently price in a Q3‑2024 or early‑2025 rollout of Level 4‑autonomous rides now have to embed a regulatory‑delay premium. The negative sentiment (‑25) and the regulatory‑category tag suggest the market will view any further permit‑seeking setbacks as a material head‑risk, widening the probability‑weighted range of cash‑flow forecasts for the robotaxi business.

Trading implications

In the short term the news adds downside pressure to TSLA, especially on the upside‑biased “milestone‑driven” rally that has been building on recent earnings beats. Expect the stock to test the $165‑$170 resistance zone (the prior high on the 4‑hour chart) with a higher probability of a pull‑back toward the $155 support as investors re‑price the near‑term autonomous‑vehicle timeline. On the upside, the longer‑run upside thesis remains intact—if Tesla can still secure a New York permit and hit a Q4‑2025 robotaxi launch, the upside potential beyond $210 still looks attractive. Until the permit filing materialises, keep a tight stop just above the recent high and consider a short‑to‑mid‑term position or a hedged delta‑neutral play (e.g., buying TSLA while shorting a near‑term autonomous‑vehicle ETF) to capture the added regulatory risk.