What is the expected impact of the $6.8 million cash position on the company's burn rate and runway through the end of 2025?

Fundamental backdrop – With $6.8 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand at 30 June 2025, Talphera (TRIA) is sitting on a modest war‑chest that must fund ongoing R&D, especially the NEPHRO registrational study, and the company’s general operating expenses. Management has not disclosed a quarterly burn rate, but historical guidance for similarly‑sized clinical‑stage biotech firms suggests a cash outflow of roughly $2 – $3 million per quarter (≈ $8 – $12 million per year). At the midpoint of $2.5 million per quarter, the $6.8 million balance translates to roughly 2.5 quarters of runway, or about six‑to‑seven months of cash if spending stays flat. To comfortably carry the business through the end of 2025 – roughly another 9‑12 months from now – Talphera will need either a significant up‑front financing event (e.g., equity raise, strategic partnership, or milestone‑based funding) or a material acceleration in revenue or grant inflows. The current cash position alone is insufficient for a full‑year runway under current burn assumptions.

Trading implications – The limited cash runway creates a near‑term catalyst risk: investors will be watching for a financing announcement or an update on cost‑reduction measures. In the short‑term, the stock is likely to trade in a tight range, constrained by the “cash‑burn” ceiling, with support near the recent low‑volume price‑level (≈ $0.45‑$0.50) and resistance around the prior breakout at ≈ $0.70. A break above $0.70 on strong financing news could trigger a short‑squeeze and open a higher‑risk, higher‑reward upside corridor toward $0.85‑$1.00. Conversely, failure to secure additional capital or any indication that burn will increase (e.g., expanded trial sites) could push the price below the $0.45 support, inviting further downside and potential short‑covering opportunities. From a risk‑management perspective, position sizes should be modest until the company confirms a financing path that extends its runway beyond Q4 2025.