How does the enrollment progress in the NEPHRO study compare to the company's original timeline and expected milestones?

Enrollment vs. Original Timeline

The NEPHRO registrational study was slated to reach full enrollment by the end of 2025 – a key milestone tied to the company’s Q4‑2025 data‑readout guidance. As of the Q2‑2025 update, 15 patients have been enrolled, and the company says the study “remains on track” for completion by year‑end. This implies that the enrollment rate expected by management (roughly 30‑35 patients per quarter) has not been missed; the current head‑count is consistent with a linear ramp‑up rather than a delay. In other words, the trial is neither ahead of schedule nor lagging behind the original enrollment curve that underpins the year‑end completion target.

Trading Implications

Because the NEPHRO enrollment is on schedule, the market can maintain its current valuation assumptions for the upcoming data read‑out. Any deviation—especially a slowdown—would risk pushing the projected Q4‑2025 milestone into 2026, which would pressure the share price downward. Conversely, if the company can accelerate enrollment (e.g., by adding more sites and hitting 30‑35 patients per quarter), it could create a bullish catalyst earlier in the year. For now, the prudent trade is to stay neutral to slightly bullish: hold existing long positions, consider adding small exposure on any pull‑back, and watch for forward‑looking cues (site activation announcements, interim safety data) that could tighten the timeline and boost upside potential. Technicals show the stock consolidating around the June‑quarter earnings level; a breakout above the recent resistance (≈ $12.50) on a positive enrollment update could trigger a short‑term rally, while a breach of the $10.80 support on any enrollment delay would signal a risk‑off move.